Kalshi AI Trader
DEMOupdated Aug 14, 2026, 12:50:21 AM ET · 8m ago· next scan ~1m · next monitor ~1m
Pulse · DEMO · scan 1m · monitor 1m
Slight red.
Down $0.01 from yesterday's positions — plenty of runway left.
Today
−$0.01
-0.01% · 0 trades · 5 open
WatchingKXHIGHNY-26AUG13-T85·mark 99c+$4.64
Paper Equity
$107.48
+$7.48 · 7.5% of $100 · peak $100.00
Today
$-0.01
-0.01% of equity · 0 trades
Win Rate
49%
97 closed / 184 total
Expectancy
+$0.00
per trade · PF 1.00
Available
$77.18
5 open · $22.82 · sizing basis $107.03 (epoch 33)
Risk gauges
Daily loss$0.01 / $20
Drawdown0.0% / 25%
Consec losses0 / 5
Capital deployed21% / 98% cap
Performance
73-day equity curve · daily ledger
Account equity
$101.28
real EOD (cash + marks)
Cumulative realized P&L
$-2.58
-2.6% vs $100 · excludes open marks
Profitable days
18/73
25% of days green
Max drawdown
-100.1%
cap 25% halt
Sharpe (ann.)
0.67
risk-adjusted · 30d+
Best / worst day
+$21.00
worst $-36.48
end-of-day equity $100 break-even halted day drawdown from peakhover a point for that day's detail
Today's lessons
- Too few current-epoch closed trades for analysis (0/30)The engine needs at least 30 closed trades in the current strategy epoch before it will recommend any config change — below that, a finding is noise, not signal. Keep running and check back.
Yesterday — 2026-08-01
PnL
$-82.57
-82.6% return
Win rate
23%
82W / 272L
Trades
356
PF 0.73
Peak → End
$57
69% DD
- Too few current-epoch closed trades for analysis (0/30)The engine needs at least 30 closed trades in the current strategy epoch before it will recommend any config change — below that, a finding is noise, not signal. Keep running and check back.
Daily history · 1d · 0/1 profitable · $-82.57 total
Aug 1
$-82.57
Week over week
real equity · % change vs prior weekAug 10 – Aug 14
+0.16%
+$0.17
Aug 3 – Aug 9
+2.11%
+$2.22
Jul 27 – Aug 2
+84.41%
+$48.10
Jul 20 – Jul 26
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jul 13 – Jul 19
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jul 6 – Jul 12
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jun 29 – Jul 5
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jun 22 – Jun 28
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jun 15 – Jun 21
-2.66%
$-1.56
Jun 8 – Jun 14
-35.14%
$-31.72
Jun 1 – Jun 7
—
first period
Month over month
real equity · % change vs prior monthAug 2026
+88.60%
+$50.49
Jul 2026
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jun 2026
—
first period
Strategy performance
WEATHER
+$0.45
T MARKETS
+$7.86
B MARKETS
$-7.41
By city
SEA
+$28.88
BOS
+$17.95
CHI
+$12.48
SATX
+$12.08
MSP
+$4.37
DC
$-0.64
SF
$-2.14
AUS
$-4.39
PHX
$-5.49
NY
$-26.99
DEN
$-35.66
Settlement calendar
Aug 13, 2026
2 positions
cost $15.18 · mark +$6.62
Aug 14, 2026
3 positions
cost $7.64 · mark +$0.41
Open positions (5)
KXHIGHNY-26AUG13-T85NO16x @ 70cWill the **high temp in NYC** be <85° on Aug 13, …+$4.64 (+41%)
STOP 55cnow 99c · src weatherTAKE 90c
KXLOWTSATX-26AUG13-T78NO6x @ 66cWill the minimum temperature be >78° on Aug 13, 2…+$1.98 (+50%)
STOP 51cnow 99c · src weatherTAKE 90c
KXHIGHNY-26AUG14-T85NO4x @ 65cWill the maximum temperature be <85° on Aug 14, 2…+$0.08 (+3%)
STOP 50cnow 67c · src weatherTAKE 90c
KXLOWTMIN-26AUG14-T68NO2x @ 48cWill the minimum temperature be >68° on Aug 14, 2…+$0.38 (+39%)
STOP 33cnow 67c · src weatherTAKE 90c
KXHIGHDEN-26AUG14-T88NO5x @ 81cWill the maximum temperature be >88° on Aug 14, 2…$-0.05 (-1%)
STOP 66cnow 80c · src weatherTAKE 90c
Recent trades
NOKXHIGHTSEA-26AUG14-T77+$0.15
NOKXHIGHDEN-26AUG14-T88OPEN
NOKXLOWTMIN-26AUG14-T68OPEN
NOKXHIGHTSEA-26AUG13-T78+$0.37
NOKXLOWTSATX-26AUG14-T79OPEN
NOKXHIGHNY-26AUG14-T85OPEN
NOKXHIGHNY-26AUG14-T85OPEN
NOKXHIGHNY-26AUG14-T85OPEN
NOKXHIGHDEN-26AUG13-T78+$0.28
NOKXHIGHTSEA-26AUG12-T79+$0.99
YESKXLOWTCHI-26AUG12-T71$-1.01
NOKXHIGHCHI-26AUG12-T80+$2.51
YESKXHIGHAUS-26AUG12-B99.5$-0.91
YESKXHIGHNY-26AUG12-B87.5$-1.00
NOKXLOWTSATX-26AUG12-T78+$4.07
YESKXLOWTCHI-26AUG13-T71$-0.53
YESKXLOWTSFO-26AUG13-T60$-1.07
YESKXHIGHCHI-26AUG13-T76$-0.82
YESKXHIGHTSEA-26AUG12-B74.5$-1.00
YESKXHIGHAUS-26AUG12-T99$-1.01
NOKXLOWTSATX-26AUG13-T78OPEN
NOKXLOWTSATX-26AUG13-T78OPEN
YESKXLOWTMIN-26AUG13-T71OPEN
YESKXLOWTMIN-26AUG13-T71OPEN
YESKXLOWTMIN-26AUG13-T71OPEN
YESKXHIGHDEN-26AUG13-T85OPEN
NOKXHIGHNY-26AUG13-T85OPEN
YESKXLOWTDEN-26AUG12-T69$-1.00
YESKXLOWTMIN-26AUG12-T69+$0.49
NOKXHIGHDEN-26AUG12-T94$-0.31
NOKXHIGHTPHX-26AUG12-T98+$4.77
YESKXLOWTSFO-26AUG12-T60$-0.90
Weather model calibration
5664 scored forecasts · 192 awaiting outcome · Brier 0.133 (0 = perfect, 0.25 = coinflip)
Auto-tuning: kernel base 2.75°F+0.5°F/dayLAX -6°FPHX +3.29°FMIA +2.16°F · updated 13h ago
Reliability (predicted → realized)
0-10%predicted 4%→ realized 10%(n=2771)
10-20%predicted 15%→ realized 20%(n=1404)
20-30%predicted 24%→ realized 22%(n=793)
30-40%predicted 34%→ realized 21%(n=376)
40-50%predicted 44%→ realized 20%(n=164)
50-60%predicted 55%→ realized 42%(n=64)
60-70%predicted 65%→ realized 69%(n=42)
70-80%predicted 75%→ realized 89%(n=27)
80-90%predicted 85%→ realized 100%(n=14)
90-100%predicted 93%→ realized 100%(n=9)
By lead time
0dclaimed 88%→ 98%under 10pp
1dclaimed 85%→ 98%under 13pp
Station bias (ensemble − realized, after tuning)
NY+1.6°FMAE 1.9°F · n=30
SEA-1.5°FMAE 1.7°F · n=30
AUS-1.5°FMAE 1.5°F · n=30
MSP-1.1°FMAE 1.5°F · n=30
CHI-1.1°FMAE 1.3°F · n=30
LAX-0.9°FMAE 1.9°F · n=30
BOS-0.9°FMAE 1.5°F · n=30
PHX+0.7°FMAE 1.3°F · n=30
DC-0.5°FMAE 1.3°F · n=30
SF-0.4°FMAE 0.7°F · n=30
SATX-0.3°FMAE 0.9°F · n=30
DEN+0.1°FMAE 0.8°F · n=30
MIA-0.0°FMAE 0.9°F · n=30
Findings
⚠️ 536 of 5664 Kalshi-graded pairs contradict the temperature join
→ Keep backfilling settlements until fromTemperature is small, and treat pre-backfill calibration reports as provisional.
ℹ️ Underconfident at 1-day lead — kernel too wide
→ Lower weatherKernelPerDayF by ~0.3°F — skill at 1d is better than the kernel assumes.
🚨 Bucket forecasts overconfident (claimed 91%, realized 81%)
→ Set skipBucketMarkets=true (config.ts) and redeploy — bucket calibration has decoupled from claimed confidence again. Re-run cli:validate-buckets before any future re-enable.