Kalshi AI Trader
DEMOupdated Oct 14, 2026, 06:00:28 PM ET · 7m ago· next scan ~3m · next monitor ~2m
Pulse · DEMO · scan 3m · monitor 2m
Slight red.
Down $0.12 from yesterday's positions — plenty of runway left.
Today
−$0.12
-0.12% · 0 trades · 2 open
WatchingKXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60·mark 1c−$1.65
Paper Equity
$91.41
$-8.59 · -8.6% of $100 · peak $100.00
Today
$-0.12
-0.12% of equity · 0 trades
Win Rate
44%
301 closed / 303 total
Expectancy
$-0.03
per trade · PF 0.97
Available
$94.14
2 open · $5.86 · sizing basis $99.25 (epoch 35)
Risk gauges
Daily loss$0.12 / $8
Drawdown0.8% / 25%
Consec losses0 / 5
Capital deployed6% / 60% cap
Performance
135-day equity curve · daily ledger
Account equity
$87.08
real EOD (cash + marks)
Cumulative realized P&L
$-7.84
-7.8% vs $100 · excludes open marks
Profitable days
31/135
23% of days green
Max drawdown
-100.1%
cap 25% halt
Sharpe (ann.)
0.29
risk-adjusted · 30d+
Best / worst day
+$21.00
worst $-36.48
end-of-day equity $100 break-even halted day drawdown from peakhover a point for that day's detail
Today's lessons
- Too few current-epoch closed trades for analysis (0/30)The engine needs at least 30 closed trades in the current strategy epoch before it will recommend any config change — below that, a finding is noise, not signal. Keep running and check back.
Yesterday — 2026-08-01
PnL
$-82.57
-82.6% return
Win rate
23%
82W / 272L
Trades
356
PF 0.73
Peak → End
$57
69% DD
- Too few current-epoch closed trades for analysis (0/30)The engine needs at least 30 closed trades in the current strategy epoch before it will recommend any config change — below that, a finding is noise, not signal. Keep running and check back.
Daily history · 1d · 0/1 profitable · $-82.57 total
Aug 1
$-82.57
Week over week
real equity · % change vs prior weekOct 12 – Oct 14
-3.00%
$-2.83
Oct 5 – Oct 11
+5.27%
+$4.72
Sep 28 – Oct 4
+0.16%
+$0.14
Sep 21 – Sep 27
-2.76%
$-2.54
Sep 14 – Sep 20
-0.49%
$-0.45
Sep 7 – Sep 13
+2.49%
+$2.24
Aug 31 – Sep 6
-6.55%
$-6.32
Aug 24 – Aug 30
-9.10%
$-9.65
Aug 17 – Aug 23
-2.13%
$-2.31
Aug 10 – Aug 16
+1.03%
+$1.10
Aug 3 – Aug 9
+2.11%
+$2.22
Jul 27 – Aug 2
+84.41%
+$48.10
Jul 20 – Jul 26
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jul 13 – Jul 19
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jul 6 – Jul 12
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jun 29 – Jul 5
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jun 22 – Jun 28
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jun 15 – Jun 21
-2.66%
$-1.56
Jun 8 – Jun 14
-35.14%
$-31.72
Jun 1 – Jun 7
—
first period
Month over month
real equity · % change vs prior monthOct 2026
-3.61%
$-3.42
Sep 2026
+3.13%
+$2.88
Aug 2026
+61.35%
+$34.96
Jul 2026
+0.00%
+$0.00
Jun 2026
—
first period
Strategy performance
WEATHER
$-9.79
T MARKETS
$-0.43
B MARKETS
$-7.41
By city
SEA
+$29.87
BOS
+$18.60
SATX
+$12.39
MSP
+$6.23
CHI
+$3.38
LAX
+$0.15
SF
$-0.58
MIA
$-1.75
DC
$-3.26
AUS
$-4.47
PHX
$-5.97
NY
$-27.52
DEN
$-34.91
Settlement calendar
Oct 14, 2026
2 positions
cost $5.86 · mark $-0.75
Open positions (2)
KXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60NO11x @ 16cWill the minimum temperature be <60° on Oct 14, 2…$-1.65 (-92%)
STOP 1cnow 1c · src weatherTAKE 90c
KXHIGHDEN-26OCT14-T48NO5x @ 81cWill the maximum temperature be <48° on Oct 14, 2…+$0.90 (+22%)
STOP 66cnow 99c · src weatherTAKE 90c
Recent trades
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT15-T34RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT15-T34RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT15-T34RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT15-T34RETIRED
NOKXHIGHCHI-26OCT15-T66RETIRED
NOKXHIGHCHI-26OCT15-T66RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXHIGHDEN-26OCT14-T48OPEN
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXHIGHDEN-26OCT14-T48RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60OPEN
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60RETIRED
NOKXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXLOWTBOS-26OCT14-T60RETIRED
NOKXLOWTDEN-26OCT14-T39RETIRED
NOKXHIGHDEN-26OCT13-T62RETIRED
NOKXHIGHNY-26OCT13-T71RETIRED
NOKXLOWTBOS-26OCT13-T52RETIRED
Weather model calibration
5610 scored forecasts · 222 awaiting outcome · Brier 0.152 (0 = perfect, 0.25 = coinflip)
Auto-tuning: kernel base 2.75°F+0.5°F/dayLAX -6°FPHX +3.29°FMIA +2.16°FNY -1.01°FAUS +2.11°F · updated 1d ago
Reliability (predicted → realized)
0-10%predicted 6%→ realized 13%(n=3420)
10-20%predicted 12%→ realized 27%(n=1340)
20-30%predicted 25%→ realized 8%(n=244)
30-40%predicted 35%→ realized 10%(n=211)
40-50%predicted 45%→ realized 13%(n=164)
50-60%predicted 55%→ realized 30%(n=105)
60-70%predicted 65%→ realized 30%(n=50)
70-80%predicted 75%→ realized 42%(n=31)
80-90%predicted 85%→ realized 33%(n=24)
90-100%predicted 94%→ realized 43%(n=21)
By lead time
0dclaimed 89%→ 95%under 5pp
1dclaimed 88%→ 94%under 6pp
Station bias (ensemble − realized, after tuning)
LAX+4.6°FMAE 5.8°F · n=29
CHI-1.9°FMAE 2.1°F · n=30
SEA-1.5°FMAE 2.0°F · n=29
SF+1.4°FMAE 1.6°F · n=30
BOS+1.3°FMAE 2.0°F · n=30
DEN-1.2°FMAE 1.3°F · n=30
AUS-0.9°FMAE 1.6°F · n=30
DC-0.7°FMAE 1.4°F · n=30
SATX+0.4°FMAE 1.3°F · n=30
PHX+0.3°FMAE 1.2°F · n=29
NY+0.2°FMAE 1.0°F · n=30
MSP+0.2°FMAE 1.1°F · n=30
MIA+0.1°FMAE 1.1°F · n=30
Findings
⚠️ 486 of 5478 Kalshi-graded pairs contradict the temperature join
→ Keep backfilling settlements until fromTemperature is small, and treat pre-backfill calibration reports as provisional.
⚠️ LAX ensemble runs warm (+4.6°F)
→ Apply a -4.6°F bias correction to LAX's forecast, or add it to disabledCities until the station mapping is verified (wrong NWS station is the usual cause).
🚨 Bucket forecasts overconfident (claimed 92%, realized 79%)
→ Set skipBucketMarkets=true (config.ts) and redeploy — bucket calibration has decoupled from claimed confidence again. Re-run cli:validate-buckets before any future re-enable.